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In July pan-African research institution network Afrobarometer released what it describes as its inaugural flagship report, one focusing on the democratic aspirations and experiences of African citizens. The organisation intends this to be an annual series.
Information is drawn from more than a decade’s worth of data, including the latest round of nationally representative surveys in 39 countries – these represent the views of more than 75% of the continent’s population, says Afrobarometer.
Arguably the key finding is that democracy is alive and well in Africa, though it is currently experiencing significant challenges.
“Since 2020, soldiers have pushed out elected governments in six countries. Three presidents have defied constitutional limits to claim third terms in office. Other leaders use subtler means to erode democracy, weakening checks on their authority and harassing the political opposition. Non-compliance by member states frustrates the African Union’s progress in enforcing democratic norms.”
These setbacks, says Afrobarometer, cast shadows on democratic triumphs such as successful elections, ruling-party transitions, the ouster of long-sitting presidents, the strong showing of the judiciary in electoral disputes, and others. Furthermore, they spark concerns that democracy is losing ground on the continent.
The bottom line, according to the report, is that “Africans want more democratic governance than they are getting. Furthermore, evidence suggests that nurturing support for democracy will require strengthening integrity in local government and official accountability”.
Democratic challenges
The average situation across the 39 countries assessed is that democracy still enjoys strong support. Most respondents (66%) indicated that they preferred democracy to other systems of government. They rejected the authoritarian alternatives of military rule (66%), one-party rule (78%), and one-man rule (80%).
This is despite a general decrease in support for democracy (7% on average) across 30 countries for which Afrobarometer has complete data, including South Africa, where the biggest drop was seen, from 72% to a concerning 43% (-29%). Mali posted the second-biggest drop from 62% to 39%, or -23%.
In South Africa the number of people rejecting one-party rule rose slightly from 68% in 2011 to 69%, while the number rejecting one-man rule dropped from 70% to 67% and the number rejecting military rule dropped from 68% to 54%.
Many countries show a diminished opposition to military rule, most dramatically in Mali (-40%) and Burkina Faso (-37%). Furthermore, 53% of Africans across the entire 39 countries say they will accept a military takeover “when elected leaders abuse power for their own ends,” even though two-thirds reject institutionalised military rule. This is a consequence of endless corruption, where people are so fed up that they will tolerate anything if it brings change.
The youth of Africa support democracy to much the same extent that older people do, but they express a greater willingness to tolerate military intervention, says Afrobarometer – and this is worrying.
In terms of the supply of democracy – the level which fulfils the people’s needs and wants – only 45% of Africans think their countries are mostly or completely democratic, and only 37% say they are satisfied with the way democracy works in their countries.
In South Africa the former indicator dropped from 66% in 2011 to 33%, and the latter dropped from 60% to a scant 25% – a clear sign of disillusionment with the government’s inability or unwillingness to address corruption. The country shares a similar steep decline in satisfaction with democracy with several other high-profile democracies, including Botswana (-40%) and Mauritius (-40%).
“Indicators of democratic and accountable governance delivered by elected leaders have either been declining over time, as in the case of presidential respect for the courts and Parliament, or have remained stagnant at very low levels, as in the case of equal treatment before the law.”
What is driving the decline?
Not unexpectedly, growing dissatisfaction is “strongly associated with perceived declines in both socioeconomic and political performance”, says Afrobarometer.
The organisation’s data shows that these two factors do influence levels of satisfaction with democracy, but support for democracy stands firm against economic factors such as poverty and poor economic management.
The political factors are another matter – the evidence points to increasing corruption in local government, worsening election quality, failure to adhere to the rule of law, and a lack of presidential accountability, as factors that tend to undermine popular faith in democracy.
“Countering these political failings must be a priority for African governments, as well as for regional, pan-African, and international actors committed to strengthening democracy on the continent.”
Corruption stands out as one of the biggest hurdles for democracy, and most ordinary Africans think it is getting worse. On average across the 39 countries, says Afrobarometer, 58% of citizens say corruption levels in their countries increased over the past year, including 82% in South Africa. Only Benin (70%), Mali (64%), and Zambia (53%) showed a majority view that corruption decreased.
In addition, across the 30 countries for which Afrobarometer has complete data, 38% of respondents say “most” or “all” officials in their president’s office are corrupt, an increase of 13 percentage points from the 25% in 2011/2013. The same view holds for members of Parliament (+11%) and the judiciary (+8%), while local government councillors and civil servants incurred a small increase of 3%.
Two-thirds (67%) of Africans say their governments are failing in the fight against corruption, and 71% say people risk retaliation by reporting corruption to the authorities.
For the complete set of findings and data, read the Afrobarometer report.
